The Future Aspect of Information Technology in the near Future, and its Effect upon Society

The Future Aspect of Information Technology in the near Future, and its Effect upon Society.

This essay will look into the not to distant future of information technology, and how the outcomes, may well effect the way we work and play in society. Most futurists believe that the future will simply be an extension of our present technology. Saceano (www.suite101.com) believes that " Future technology has to be seen as honest and morally acceptable, it also has to enhance our lives without dramatically altering them". The use of a crystal ball to guess at future technology therefore is a mistake, we must err on the side of sensibility and market forces. Predictions can be fraught with peril, in 1943 the then, chairman of IBM (Thomas Watson) said "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers"

As humans we still retain our 'herd instinct', and as such we have a basic need to communicate with others. The fact that some 65% of the population now live alone, has heightened this craving, hence the huge demand for cheap mobile phones. (Every man and his dog now have one). The invention of the WAP (Wireless Application Protocol) phone is really only the next stage of the process. If you can add a sensible technique to access the Internet, both to send and receive data and pictures (that can easily be read), then man will really have portability coupled with efficiency. Gates (1999) says "The invention of the mobile phone coupled to the Internet is here now, but it is still a crude expensive device at this moment".

In the very near future we will see significant changes. Firstly the viewable screen size will change. In Oxford, scientists have found a way, using 'Mylar' micro thin substrated plastic to replace the LCD rigid and breakable screens, to make a LED flexible screen. (Old technology back again). They see a screen of about 25 X 25 cm that can be unrolled from the edge of the phone, with a spring-loaded frame for rigidity. The three primary colours already available can be intermixed for graphics etc. (cheaper versions will have the substrate printed upon the back of the phone). Weber (www.newsvote.bbc.co.uk) says that "Mobile software and faster CPUs are still in their infancy, and the future battle lines are drawn between Microsoft (Windows CE) versus the rest (Epoc by Psion etc)".

The ability for a mobile executive/salesperson to download contracts/orders, check stock at warehousing and then set delivery dates will ensure the future of the systems. Add to all this instant access to the Internet, Conover (www.nwc.com) sees speeds of up to 12-15 Mbps in the near future. 'Symbian' (Consortium of Ericsson, Motorola and Nokia) are promising a WAP phone which will include a built-in modem, PDA touch screen, e-mail, internet connection, handwriting recognition, voice dialling and voice answering facilities. Data collection companies may well convert to WAP for their senior staff. (? Bandwidth problems). However airtime costs will ensure that the 'land-line' based systems will still be used for the foreseeable future.

The non-WAP 'land-line' web user should also expect to see dramatic improvements in the near future. At this moment in time the Internet is appalling, unfriendly, with slow access, even slower downloading, frequent page crashes, and full of stuff nobody needs ever! All this is set to change in the near future. The computer itself is virtually self-developing, (Probably no one can predict how fast they will end up). Even today we now have fast processors (890 Mhz), and cheap drive storage (500 Mb for £60) with faster models coming on stream almost monthly, Therefore in order to map the near future, we need to move out of the home/office and look for future developments in how we get from home to our ISP, and how friendly/technical we find our web access to be.

The link between our 'local loop' and the ISP is probably the weakest bottleneck. This 'Internet backbone’ is slowly moving into the field of optical fibres as a means of increasing speed. However even optical fibre has some integral resistance and therefore need boosting every so often, thus they are amplified by wired boards, which slow the signals down. Rae-Dupree (www.mercurycenter.com) points to near future research whereby, like transistor technology, the introduction of an impurity such as Boron, which when hit by light, actually amplifies the signals and self boosts it, so we should see the 'backbone' speed increase. Ranaud (www.buybuddy.com) says "The present speed of about 44 Mbs should increase to about 155 Mbs in the near future. The advantage to the end user of this high speed 'backbone' is that it will allow for proper 'streaming (Audio/Video), rather than the present rather jerky one we have now". This should allow many large companies to move huge blocks of data between the ‘back office’ and their braches with consummate ease.

The term 'user-friendly' is much overused these days, but if the web is to be 'all things to all men' then the web has to present a non-technical, almost benign face to the general populace. The present day 'rats-nest' of linking, cross linking, and almost guessing, where to find the site you want, will have to go. Even more so if business wants to attract customers, for its sales and services etc. Martin (1999) says "The web will almost have to go back to a persons kindergarten days, of smiley faces and simple statements and 'Natural Language'". We already have samples of this nowadays in the form of the 'Jeeves' site, which simply asks a series of easy questions, from which it can abstract what it hopes is the enquirers needs. (The old psychobabble site 'Liza' was probably the first to use ‘Natural Language’).

Yet another future is the 'Popularity' search engine, being researched by, 'Firefly' (MS), 'Net Perceptions' and 'Andromedia'. If you search on "Sex with Frogs", instead of getting thousands of pages relating to the subject, these search engines will simply give you the ten top sites that other similar searchers have most frequently visited. This system may be acceptable to many, as it prevents 'information overload'. The more astute can look forward to 'Inxight's Hyperbolic Tree’, which is still being designed. This will look like a globe of hypertext links that a user can navigate spatially via a mouse, allowing very rapid access over a huge range, unlike the slow serial access that standard search engines present us with nowadays. Again, to our advantage, we will be able to find services and goods easily. For businesses it should see better sales.

The near future will see an increase in what Laven (www.toptown.com) call 'Chatter bots'. His definition of a chatterbox is "A chatterbot is a program that attempts to simulate conversation, with the aim at least temporarily fooling the real human being into thinking they were talking to another person". Whilst in no way could it be said that this is 'Artificial Intelligence' at work, many researchers see this as a beginning blue-print for the real thing soon. The next stage will be the ‘Avatar’. This is an almost human image of a person, middle aged, smart, pleasant etc and amenable to the viewers image of the ideal questioner, who will voice the questions to elicit a probable answer of what the viewer wants. Friedlander (www.sciam.com) sees 'Avators' as having "Strong anthropomorphic features: the ability to communicate effectively, to learn and make decisions on their own, to filter and 'enhance' information". The Oxford Concise says of 'Avatar' "The descent of a deity or released soul to earth in bodily form" (muff said).

These 'Avatars' can 'front' an office in order to guide the viewer to the right section. Saucepan (www.suite101.com) believes that "Young thrusting firms would probably use pretty blonde 'Avatars' to front their office, with a slight French accent to heighten their perceived image". (These curvaceous 'Laura Crofts' (Tomb Raider's) have one advantage; they will not require holidays or a pay packet!) A serious use for these 'chatter bots' is seen in the future, as fronting information distributing companies and self-help groups. An example is the present 24hr health advice agencies, (NHS Health Talk) which would 'humanise' their help lines with ‘Avatars’ and thus draw out the reticent patient. Once the problem is ascertained, then a nurse 'Avatar' would come on line to reinforce any treatment, or referral needed.

Whilst information retrieval is the major use of the Internet at the moment, the huge potential of using the Internet for the purchase of goods and services will be the powerhouse that will drive the system forwards into the future. The 'Internet Economy' encompasses the whole commercial world, from goods, services and holidays to insurance and banking etc. Wilmot (www.zdnet.com) looking at the American market says that "The USA market will move from its present $7 billion online sales to approx. $45 billion in the next 5 years". Here in the UK we still only have about 18 million people on the web. However the 'Office for National Statistics' sees this doubling in the few years, therefore (as we tend to follow the USA trends) we in the UK will also see an increase in on-line purchases.

Perhaps the biggest 'slowdown' in the UK is our reluctance to commit our credit card numbers over the web. (Yet we happily give our cards over to a waiter, shop assistant or garage forecourt person!) There is a great move nowadays to reassure people that net purchases are getting safer. Gates (1999) points out that "Whilst the present day 129 digit public encryption key system can (and has) been breached, the newer 250 digital product of two prime numbers will make future purchasing safer". Other future schemes are 'Digital Wallets' whereby a lump sum of money is kept in a digital web bank, and then paid out by that bank for purchases by their customer. (Any losses/theft being borne by the digital bank). This means that the purchaser/client only has to make, say one transaction, between themselves and the digital bank, rather than many single transactions. Both 'Microsoft' and 'Compaq' have plans for this system.

Friedlander & Roetter (www.sciam.com) writing in 'Scientific American' magazine have formulated a near future scenario which they call the 'Personal Network’. Instead of having many household 'electricals' and computing gear each with their own separate control, the authors envisage a personal network. This network will in fact mirror the present 'wireless LANs', but will be unique to, and controlled only by its owner. Basically, your 'laptop' will during the night collect together all your appointments from various sources, download and print out the morning paper, set the coffee machine going, then wake you up. The article goes on to describe a whole days work, and all its interactions, right through to bedtime again. The secret of all this depends on all your 'electricals' having 'embedded chips' (dedicated 32/64 bit processors) that can be addressed and written to. Jim Turley Senior analyst at 'MicroDesign' Says "There will be embedded chips that would give the Pentium III a run for its money" We are really close nowadays with our self-thinking-working washing machines and fridges, so most of this is a realistic possibility in the near future. One could conceive that the house, the car, the person and the office really join together to become 'one large single computer unit' (The authors however, have not ventured the cost of all this, therefore it may well be out of reach for most of us).

The near future is set to revolutionise the way we store and retrieve data. Whilst the 650 Mb capacity of the CDROM was seen as the ultimate storage and retrieval media, the future is set to increase this dramatically. Luong (www.buybuddy.com) says that "C3D.Inc. is developing the 'FMD' (Fluorescent Material Disc). The drive and disc size remains the same, but utilises 20 layers of data storage". (The present DVD nowadays uses only 2-3 layers). Luong goes on to say, "The FMD should provide up to 140 Giga bytes of storage media, and should be available in the next few years". Companies such as 'Lucent Technologies' and 'Imation Corp.' have announced near plans to go even further, in developing 3D imaging recording media, again based on the present CDrom format. One of the wackiest ideas comes from the 'Xerox Corp.' who is developing a re-usable 'Ferro-Plasticised Paper’, which not only shows text, but also can be put through a reader to show graphics 'imprinted' on the page. The whole page can be erased and used again (The? paperless office at last). Martin (1999) says however "People 'love' paper, and it will take a lot to change opinions". (He gives a long list of why we like paper, and they all make sense, they reflect how we feel more secure if we have paper printouts of every thing we do).

Whilst children now use ‘play stations’ for entertainment, it is essentially a non-interactive pleasure that can lead to social isolation. Plans are afoot by ‘Nintendo’ in the next two years to remedy this. They are to set up a huge ‘games-park’ on the web. Children will assume roles that suit them and play in ‘real time’ with other real children. The attraction will be the awards of ‘Nintendo’ points, which can be earned by the children and used as ‘web cash’ to purchase goods and services. This system should encourage our children to be more au fait with Internet shopping when they are older. Lucas Technology (Star Wars Fame) in the near future have announced they are to set up a huge futuristic 3D fantasy games park for adults, which will demand a fair amount of skill, (and paid for line time!). They are to develop ‘Life Force Avatars’ which will live in our own computers when not in use. These ‘Avatars’ say Lucas will be very human like and will adopt the characteristics of the player, based on how they have played in previous games. (? Frightening thought).

Virtual Reality is a fairly new science, still mainly used as an entertainment. UCW (Aberystwyth Physics) have announced future plans to develop virtual reality as a teaching tool to show students realistic/active atomic structures that can be programmed to change in real time according to what the student inputs. Explosions and fires will also be simulated to study their action upon various solid structures. (Students will be able to stand inside these VR explosions to enhance their study)

The downloading of music and some film stock is possible now, but the music is often distorted and the film downloads are jerky and slow. With new high speed ‘streaming’ promised in the near future, these problems should be a thing of the past. (Wider bandwidths and specialist secondary processors whose sole function is to accept and process huge chunks of this data, and present it the end user as a smooth roll-out.) Are on the near horizon. Renaud (www.buybuddy.com) Says that ‘George Lucas (him of Star Wars again) is so confident that the downloading of digitised film stock is forthcoming, he is making all his films so that they can be downloaded by the new ‘multiplexes’ direct from his company live, and shown instantaneously to the audience.’

Not all the near future is ‘rosy’ however. The more Internet literate we become, the more information we must give away about ourselves. Eisinberg (www.askerica.com) calls this a ‘Loss of digital privacy’, he goes on to say that ‘Your income, buying habits, reading preferences, opinions expressed and e-mail sites most visited plus your most sensitive financial data from banks, building societies and credit card companies could well end up in the public domain of the future’. Specialised ‘snuffle-bots’ will continually trawl commercial, banking and medical sites, looking for faults that they can exploit, to download personal data which can then be collated and sold on to interested parties. The fact that everything is in digital form makes transfer more easier. (Only one format to bother about).

One sad thing that the near future will bring, is the ever widening gap between the ‘haves and the have-nots’. Brooks (www.web.newscientist.com) uses the term ‘The Information Underclass’, and says, ‘People who do not (for any reason) have full internet access will in the future find themselves both socially and financially isolated’. Attempts by the UK government to sell second-hand used computers cheaply to the financial underclass over the 3 years, (www.newsline.bbc.co.uk). fails to address the possible future of the paper-cashless society. Without credit card facilities, many of these aspiring net users will not be able to purchase on-line at a possible advantageous price.

In the near future, how will our children work? Hodson (2000) saw the structure of companies changing in the Internet world from the ‘pyramidal’ structures we now have to a ‘flat-wheel’ structure. All the workers would work from home upon its rim, with the corporate computer alone in its centre, Hodson (2000) goes on to say that ‘As the younger generation, the ‘Nintendo’ generation, who are completely familiar and comfortable with computers and on-line communications, take their place in organisations, start their own businesses and start making investment decisions, they will not invest in marble clad headquarters, they will not buy fleets of expensive company cars, they will invest far more in computers and communications, they will invest far more in training for dispersed working, they will not care what their employees wear or at what times of day or night they do their work – as long as they deliver. They will employ people living, perhaps at lower cost, in remote places, miles from the ‘office’ – as long as they are good at their job and deliver their results on time’

In conclusion, it is with confidence that one can predict the near future, as most of the basic technology already exists in one form or another. We simply have to extrapolate the present. The future paperless cash economy is rapidly approaching, the credit card will be king, and the poor, well, probably no one really cares, as we head for our personal nirvana. It is sobering to believe that if we stay as we are now, with loads of free but slow software and faulty technology, we could survive in a form of a classless society. We will not however do this, as our urge to go forward, grab everything we can afford (or get on credit) seems a basic instinct of mankind. The ‘herd’ instinct will ensure that ‘Keeping up with the Jone’s’ will justify our acceptance of the near future with open arms.

Book References.

NB: (Only two books in Lampeter Univ. library were found to discuss the future.)

Gates. (1999) The Road Ahead. (Penguin Books, London)

Martin,C. (1999) Net Future. (McGraw-Hill, London)

Internet References.

Brooks,M Global Brain.

www.web.newscientist.com

Conover,J. Wireless LANs.

www.nwc.com/1113.html

Eisinberg,M Teaching Skills.

www.askeric.org/ithome/computerskills.html

Friedlander,B. Personal Networks.